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A trader made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event.

Changing Odds in Predictions

Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been apprehended.

A particular user, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000.

It remains unclear. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Probability Spikes Before Announcement

Platform data shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event.

However the market's assessment had climbed to eleven percent by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made.

"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate.

Several of other traders also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome.

Regulatory Scrutiny Grows

Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.

Proposed legislation presented on the start of the week would prevent public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a market.

Market Background

Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics.

The industry faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency.

Trading on insider information is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting industry.

A company executive for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."