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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."